Saturday, July 21, 2012

How to not be a scrub - Part 1: Shuffling - Can you shuffle too much?

Every day Kibler's shuffl'n. Theres a good reason for it. Magic is a game of odds. Your deck choice, card distribution, even down to the die roll. Every thing you do in Magic: The Gathering is based on a chance. Even someone of Brian Kibler's caliber can lose against a person who's never played outside of Duels of the Planeswalkers. One of the biggest things that separates the the best players from your average kitchen table Magic player is one thing, playing to your outs.

What is an out? In simplistic terms, it is a card, or line of plays that allows you to get out of a losing situation, or outright win the game. Picture this, you're playing a core set draft, you have a fireball in your hand, but no red mana sources in play. You're going to lose next turn from his massive, about to be overruned army. Do you give up? Of course not, it isn't over until someone is at 0 life. (More on this in part 4), you cast your ponder, no mountains. You opt to shuffle your remaining 20 cards, draw, a mountain! You fireball them for the win! But what does this have to do with shuffling you ask?

You just played the odds. Your odds of drawing the one mountain were 1 in 20 (5%) off the ponder. (To save you from maths, i'll spare you the calculations for ponder as well). The better you shuffle, the more in line your odds will be with actual statistics allowing you to draw that mountain.

Since you're more likely an aspiring scrub looking to get away from scrubyness by reading these, you have undoubtedly heard the term, "Mana Pocket", or terms like "mana weaving". In short, there should never been whats called a "mana pocket", nor should mana weaving be valid (its actually against the DCI rules, and considered deck stacking, just FYI). If you shuffle enough, and play enough games, these will never be issues outside the normal distribution curve.

In closing, shuffle your deck. Shuffle often. Shuffle more. Shuffle your opponents deck. Everyday you should be shuffling so you can play the odds, and not mana screw because of your bad shuffling.

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